Forrester says only isolated wins are likely, while 'good enough' open-weight models soak up the tokens
This year’s Nobel Prize in economics is about how expectations affect the economy. News about AI’s impact on work, tariffs, and oil supply shocks makes this work feel especially relevant. I don’t have a background in economics, and it was not obvious to me how expectations connect to policy, so I wanted to build a page that, at least in a small way, made that connection clear and sharpened my thinking on the subject. I directed the work and edited the prose heavily, collaborating with AI on research, code, and drafting. The model is essentially a three-equation linear system; the model…